In our new online course ‘ Identifying Potential Talent ‘ - developed in conjunction with the English League Managers Association ( LMA) sister organisation the PFCA one of the issues we look how coaches can manage the Relative Age Effect ( RAE )
What is RAE ?
Laura Finnegan is the Course Leader of the Recreation and Sports Management Courses at Waterford Institute of Technology in Ireland.Laura has researched extensively on RAE and Talent Development in Irish football. For another overview see here Download RAE Overview
The graph below shows all players at the 2018 FIFA World Cup but as Laura has pointed out ‘ graphing this for a global event (WC) should be designed as Quarter 1-4 as not all countries cut-off dates are the same? Countries who begin the year at January can't be compared in this manner to countries who begin in September.’
Thus in most countries where the registration date for competitions is January 1st this would be ‘ Quarter 1 ( born in the first 3 months -often described as ‘ early birthdates ‘ ) ’ but in England where initial competition is based on a September 1st start date then Quarter 1 would start on September 1st. Players born in the Quarter 4 ( often known as ‘late birthdates ) would be those born in December but in England in August
We looked at the RAE for the final Four squads and came up with these figures
|
Players |
Born in Quarter 1 |
Born in Quarter 4 |
Born in First Month of Quarter 1 |
Born in last month of Quarter 4 |
|
France |
8 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
|
Croatia |
6 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
|
Belgium |
6 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
|
England |
5 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
|
Total |
25 |
15 |
7 |
4 |
|
% of 4 squads of 23 players |
27% ( with normal distribution across the year would expect 25% ) |
16% ( with normal distribution across the year would expect 25% |
With normal distribution across the year would have expected 7 |
With normal distribution across the year would have expected 7 |
Some Basic Analysis: ( and please bear in mind this was a small sample of only 92 players !)
- It is often contended that while RAE is evident in Youth Football its effect wears off in Senior football but in the 2018 FIFA World Cup Final Four Semi - Final Squads those born in the First Quarter of the year were over represented by 2/3rd of the numbers born in the Last Quarter
- Similarly those born in the first month of the quarter ( January for the top 3 and September for England ) were almost twice as likely to represent their country as those born in the last month
- France would appear to have the most balanced squad with the largest number of players born in the last Quarter and indeed the last month !
The results would correspond with research shown below on the birthdates of English born players in the top 4 divisions of English Football
IT IS WORTH EMPHASISING THOUGH THAT THE RAE ISSUE IS SIMPLISTIC - FOR EXAMPLE NOT ALL EARLY BIRTHDATES SUCCEED AND NOT ALL LATE BIRTHDATES FAIL.THERE CAN BE ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES FROM EACH SCENARIO .THERE ARE LOTS OF ROUTES AND PATHWAYS FOR THE POTENTIALLY TALENTED PLAYER !
- We cross checked to see if there was a difference in the age at which Quarter 1 players and Quarter 4 players. Quarter 1 players on average joined their Pro Club Academy when they were 9.6 years of age and the younger Quarter 4 players in all 4 countries joined their Pro Club Academy when they were 10.2 years of age. So a small difference in ages to indicate the older Quarter 1 players joined their Pro Club Academies at an earlier age - marginally. But there were some large variations. For example from the French squad Kante ( an early birthday in Quarter 1 ) didn’t join an Academy until 18 years of age while ‘ late birthdates’ Umtiti , Lemar and Rami all had joined their Pro Club Academy by 9 years of age
In the LMA School of Football Management Online Course ‘ Identifying Potential Talent ‘ we examine the strategies used by coaches and scouts to manage RAE and course members have posted a wide range of solutions including bio banding, joining age groups together and even age ordered shirt numbering as well as those shown in the videos from Dave Parnaby formerly of Middlesborough FC, Martin Hunter at Southampton and from Hibernian FC
To find out more about the LMA School of Football Management Online Course ‘ Identifying Potential Talent’ please click here.
The World Cup Promotion will definitely be taken down tomorrow evening ( July 18th ) !!
Tony Carr
Dave Parnaby
We had large response to our survey from the last blog. We selected the first 10 to complete the survey to receive the opportunity to do the course for free and we will be sending these 10 coaches logins this week
Sam Grace
Farid Hadj-hamou
Rogier Waalder
Dor Paldi
Madalitso Mkoloma
Michael Thomas
Lee Walsh
Kevin Antunes
Gwynne Williams
Michael Amenga